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Review of the entire IT investment strategy  is it meeting the nation s needs6:"O:"O PITAC Membership 97-99 .Co-Chairs: Bill Joy, Sun Microsystems  Ken Kennedy, Rice Members: Eric Benhamou, 3Com  Vinton Cerf, MCI Ching-chih Chen, Simmons  David Cooper, LLNL Steve Dorfman, Hughes  David Dorman, PointCast Bob Ewald, SGI  David Farber, Penn Sherri Fuller, U of Washington  Hector Garcia-Molina, Stanford Susan Graham, UC Berkeley  Jim Gray, Microsoft Danny Hillis, Disney, Inc  Robert Kahn, CNRI John Miller, Montana State  David Nagel, AT&T Raj Reddy*, Carnegie Mellon  Ted Shortliffe, Stanford Larry Smarr, UIUC  Joe Thompson, Miss. State Les Vadasz, Intel  Andy Viterbi, Qualcomm Steve Wallach, Centerpoint  Irving Wladawsky-Berger*, IBM 0 T0P / 6  Methodology Evaluation of Federal Research Investment Portfolio Plans reviewed for each of the major areas: High End Computing and Computation Large Scale Networking Human Centered Computer Systems High Confidence Systems Education, Training, and Human Resources Review of Balance in Federal Research Portfolio Fundamental versus Applied Based on our own definition of these terms High-Risk versus Low-Risk Long-Term versus Short-Term~4,0+64,0+6 Principal Finding /Drift Away from Long-Term Fundamental Research 0Principal Finding Drift Away from Long-Term Fundamental Research Agencies pressed by the growth of IT needs IT R&D budgets have grown steadily but not dramatically IT industry has accounted for over 30 percent of the real GDP growth over the past five years, but gets only 1 out of 75 Federal R&D dollars Problems solved by IT are critical to the nation engineering design, health and medicine, defense6/+'/+' Principal Finding Drift Away from Long-Term Fundamental Research Agencies pressed by the growth of IT needs IT R&D budgets have grown steadily but not dramatically IT industry has accounted for over 30 percent of the real GDP growth over the past five years, but gets only 1 out of 75 Federal R&D dollars Problems solved by IT are critical to the nation engineering design, health and medicine, defense Most IT R&D agencies are mission-oriented Natural and correct to favor the short-term needs of the missionZ/+'*A/+'*A Principal Finding Drift Away from Long-Term Fundamental Research Agencies pressed by the growth of IT needs IT R&D budgets have grown steadily but not dramatically IT industry has accounted for over 30 percent of the real GDP growth over the past five years, but gets only 1 out of 75 Federal R&D dollars Problems solved by IT are critical to the nation engineering design, health and medicine, defense Most IT R&D agencies are mission-oriented Natural and correct to favor the short-term needs of the mission This Trend Must Be Reversed Continue the flow of ideas to fuel the information economy and society~/+'*AG/+'*AG ORemedy  .Remedy Increase the Federal IT R&D Investment by 1.4 billion dollars per year Ramp up over five years Focus on increasing fundamental research$GAGA / Remedy Increase the Federal IT R&D Investment by 1.4 billion dollars per year Ramp up over five years Focus on increasing fundamental research Invest in Key Areas Needing Attention Software Scalable Information Infrastructure High-End Computing Social, Economic, and Workforce IssuesHGA&gGA&g 0!Remedy Increase the Federal IT R&D Investment by 1.4 billion dollars per year Ramp up over five years Focus on increasing fundamental research Invest in Key Areas Needing Attention Software Scalable Information Infrastructure High-End Computing Social, Economic, and Workforce Issues Develop a Coherent Management Strategy Establish clear organizational responsibilities Diversify modes of supportlGA&g'KGA&g'K Software Recommendations Make fundamental software research an absolute priority Invest in key area needing attention Improving programmer productivity Ameliorate the shortage of IT professionals Improving reliability and robustness of software Improving usability through human interface innovations Improving capabilities for information management Make software research a substantive component of every major information technology research initiative.x]",j8<6%",j #Scalable Information Infrastructure $:Research Needed: Understanding the behavior of the global-scale network. Physics of the network, including optical and wireless technologies such as satellites, and bandwidth issues. Scalability of the Internet. Information management, Information and services survivability Large-scale applications and the scalable services they require. National digital library, Next-generation world-wide web Fund a balanced set of testbeds that serve the needs of networking research, research in enabling information technologies and advanced applications, and Internet research. pC9 f)9f  High-End Computing UFindings: High-end computing is essential for science and engineering research High-end computing is an enabling element of the United States national security program New applications of high-end computing are ripe for exploration Suppliers of high-end systems suffer from difficult market pressures High-end market not large Advances in high-end computing eventually find their way to desktop Recommendation Fund high-end computing research (architecture, software, and applications, and testbeds) because it is important to the government and the health, welfare, and security of the population #D #D!*f fc d"Social, Economic, Workforce Issues #Invest in Four Areas: IT-literate population IT workforce More workers, more underrepresented groups Use of IT in education Understanding economic and policy implications of technologyH$+T$+T 1""Social, Economic, Workforce Issues #Invest in Four Areas: IT-literate population IT workforce More workers, more underrepresented groups Use of IT in education Understanding economic and policy implications of technology An Observation on IT Workforce Research investment in universities is critical Without it, faculty leave Without it, grad students do not go  > no new faculty Without faculty, we cannot produce more BS graduates~$+T0$+T0  Questions 2Can we increase long-term research by rebudgeting? 3 Questions oCan we increase long-term research by rebudgeting? No, because the short-term work addresses essential problems03=3<; p Questions Can we increase long-term research by rebudgeting? No, because the short-term work addresses essential problems Why doesn t industry fund this?B3= 3<;   Questions Can we increase long-term research by rebudgeting? No, because the short-term work addresses essential problems Why doesn t industry fund this? Industry research focused on product development Enormously expensivej3= 1  3<; 1  Questions `Can we increase long-term research by rebudgeting? No, because the short-term work addresses essential problems Why doesn t industry fund this? Industry research focused on product development Enormously expensive Thurow: Private rate of return on research  24% Societal rate of return on research  66%3= 1   S 3<; 1S U Questions |Can we increase long-term research by rebudgeting? No, because the short-term work addresses essential problems Why doesn t industry fund this? Industry research focused on product development Enormously expensive Thurow: Private rate of return on research  24% Societal rate of return on research  66% Industry is not good at funding and developing disruptive technologies Federal Government funding creates fuel for the venture capital system3= 1   S  3<; 1S  Good News Administration Budget Proposed additional $366 million in FY 2000 Appropriated: $226 million Proposed $605 million increase for FY 2001 Successive years unclear Congress Sensenbrenner NITR&D Act from House Science Committee 5 years of funding at PITAC-recommended levels Permanent R&D investment tax credit Passed with near-unanimous support Only partially reflected in the Senate authorization bills Appropriations are year-to-year,D 6 ,D 6  IT Grand Challenges  IT Grand Challenges FSoftware Reliability Who will pay for bug free, feature-poor software?$22 G!IT Grand Challenges Software Reliability Who will pay for bug free, feature-poor software? Internet Scalability and Security How do we handle 2 billion internet connections at DSL speed? What if those connections are mobile and wireless?H2"q2"q "IT Grand Challenges Software Reliability Who will pay for bug free, feature-poor software? Internet Scalability and Security How do we handle 2 billion internet connections at DSL speed? What if those connections are mobile and wireless? Realistic Telepresence Can we put airlines out of business?l2"q%2"q%  &#IT Grand Challenges KSoftware Reliability Who will pay for bug free, feature-poor software? Internet Scalability and Security How do we handle 2 billion internet connections at DSL speed? What if those connections are mobile and wireless? Realistic Telepresence Can we put airlines out of business? The Internet as Problem-Solving Engine* GrADS Project2"q%(2"q%&6 N$IT Grand Challenges Software Reliability Who will pay for bug free, feature-poor software? Internet Scalability and Security How do we handle 2 billion internet connections at DSL speed? What if those connections are mobile and wireless? Realistic Telepresence Can we put airlines out of business? The Internet as Problem-Solving Engine* GrADS Project Software Productivity* Workforce shortage Idea: make it possible for end users to be application developers2"q%(U2"q%&f>6 NtNational Distributed Computing  National Distributed Computing  National Distributed Computing  National Distributed Computing   National Distributed Computing   National Distributed Computing   Grid Compilation Architecture -Goal: reliable performance under varying load.( .Grid Compilation Architecture   Grid Compilation Architecture   Programming Productivity zChallenges programming is hard professional programmers are in short supply high performance will continue to be important$ p p {%Programming Productivity nChallenges programming is hard professional programmers are in short supply high performance will continue to be important One Strategy: Make the End User a Programmer professional programmers develop components users integrate components using: problem-solving environments (PSEs) scripting languages (possibly graphical) examples: Visual Basic, Tcl/Tk, AVS, Khorosl p-NM, p-NM,bC&Programming Productivity  Challenges programming is hard professional programmers are in short supply high performance will continue to be important One Strategy: Make the End User a Programmer professional programmers develop components users integrate components using: problem-solving environments (PSEs) scripting languages (possibly graphical) examples: Visual Basic, Tcl/Tk, AVS, Khoros Compilation for High Performance translate scripts and components to common intermediate language optimize the resulting program using interprocedural methods p-NM,!~ p-NM,!~bCTelescoping Languages  Telescoping Languages  Telescoping Languages  !Telescoping Languages: Advantages "Compile times can be reasonable More compilation time can be spent on libraries Amortized over many uses Script compilations can be fast Components reused from scripts may be included in librariesZ 0 < 0 < !Telescoping Languages: Advantages "Compile times can be reasonable More compilation time can be spent on libraries Amortized over many uses Script compilations can be fast Components reused from scripts may be included in libraries High-level optimizations can be included Based on specifications of the library designer Properties often cannot be determined by compilers Properties may be hidden after low-level code generation 0 <)0l 0 <)0l !Telescoping Languages: Advantages " Compile times can be reasonable More compilation time can be spent on libraries Amortized over many uses Script compilations can be fast Components reused from scripts may be included in libraries High-level optimizations can be included Based on specifications of the library designer Properties often cannot be determined by compilers Properties may be hidden after low-level code generation User retains substantive control over language performance Mature code can be built into a library and incorporated into language 0 <)0l;G 0 <)0l;G  !Challenges for the SIAM Community "Theories of security and reliability Most of the current tools are based on mathematics public-key encryption New frontier: Software\%3%3f '!Challenges for the SIAM Community "Theories of security and reliability Most of the current tools are based on mathematics public-key encryption New frontier: Software Theories of scalable, reconfigurable communication networks Routing, load balancing Integer and mixed integer programming%3<&%3f<& V(!Challenges for the SIAM Community "Theories of security and reliability Most of the current tools are based on mathematics public-key encryption New frontier: Software Theories of scalable, reconfigurable communication networks Routing, load balancing Integer and mixed integer programming Robust libraries for scientific computation Components for problem-solving systems Latency-tolerant algorithms Management of accuracy in heterogeneous computer configurations%3<&,%3f<&, )!Challenges for the SIAM Community "Theories of security and reliability Most of the current tools are based on mathematics public-key encryption New frontier: Software Theories of scalable, reconfigurable communication networks Routing, load balancing Integer and mixed integer programming Robust libraries for scientific computation Components for problem-solving systems Latency-tolerant algorithms Management of accuracy in heterogeneous computer configurations Transmission of high-quality video Compression, compression, compression%3<&,#&%3f<&,#& OSummary 7IT Research Needs Revitalization Focus on the long term$!! 8*Summary IT Research Needs Revitalization Focus on the long term University research critical for both ideas and human resources government support role is essential6!4H!4H +Summary IT Research Needs Revitalization Focus on the long term University research critical for both ideas and human resources government support role is essential Areas of focus software, scalable infrastructure, high performance computing, societal and economic impactZ!4H\!4H\ ,Summary IT Research Needs Revitalization Focus on the long term University research critical for both ideas and human resources government support role is essential Areas of focus software, scalable infrastructure, high performance computing, societal and economic impact IT Grand Challenges Software productivity, software reliability, internet security and reliability, telepresence, Grid computing~!4H\m!4H\m l -Summary IT Research Needs Revitalization Focus on the long term University research critical for both ideas and human resources government support role is essential Areas of focus software, scalable infrastructure, high performance computing, societal and economic impact IT Grand Challenges Software productivity, software reliability, internet security and reliability, telepresence, Grid computing Critical Role for the SIAM Community!4H\m%!4H\m% l 6P ` ̙33` ` ff3333f` 333MMM` f` f` 3>?" dU@ <6? 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